Ep. 463 — Kim Clark: The 12-Step Revenue Forecast (Budget Season 2026, Part 3)

6 min read

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Episode Summary

You’re staring at the 2026 budget. Revenue gets a 5% bump from last year because that’s what you did last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. Your CFO plugs it into the three-statement model and the whole thing pivots off a number you basically guessed. Cost of goods, headcount, ad spend, inventory, distributions: all of it sits on top of a revenue line you can’t actually defend. Kim and I got into this in Part 3 of our Budget Season 2026 series, and she walked through the 12-step revenue forecasting process she ran every year at ITR Economics and is now documenting for owners. We went line by line: rates of change, economic indicators, market mix and customer psychology, top-down vs. bottom-up, upper and lower bounds, competitive analysis, pricing strategy, innovation, vertical expansion, seasonal promotions, product development, and execution. The throughline: revenue forecasting isn’t magic, it’s math plus thinking, and almost nobody in the lower middle market actually does it. Real example from her speaking-engagement business where they moved virtual pricing from $3K to $15K in four months by shifting value perception, not the product.

Top 10 Takeaways

  1. Your three-statement model pivots on a revenue number you probably guessed. Everything downstream is fiction until you fix that.
  2. Top-down tells you what the economy will let you do. Bottom-up tells you what your norms will produce. The gap is the strategy conversation.
  3. Set your budget to the lower bound. Set your goals to the upper bound. Compensation lives in the gap.
  4. Track 5 to 7 economic indicators that actually move your business, not the ones in the headlines.
  5. Segment your customer list by mindset, not by industry. Phase A buyers and Phase D buyers don’t speak the same language.
  6. If you compete on price, the next substitute product takes your customer. Differentiate quantitatively or get commoditized.
  7. Pricing is a value-perception problem, not a number problem. Change what people are paying for before you change what they pay.
  8. Hunters and farmers destroys the trusted-advisor relationship. Hybrid reps who own the full lifecycle outperform.
  9. Product-line-specific sales teams kill cross-sell and create internal enemies. Don’t do it.
  10. Activities have conversion rates and timing. Document yours, or you’re forecasting cash by feel.

Sound Bites

“It’s not magic, it’s just math. It’s all just math and research. It’s all just awareness.” (@00:05:02) — Kim Clark

“100% of the companies on the planet that I’ve ever met are underpriced. Meaning in some corner of the business, there’s something you could charge more for.” (@TBD) — Kim Clark (paraphrased reference; see actual quote below)

“Everybody knew, oh, we just happened to hit our goals. It was, we knew why we hit our goals.” (@00:16:48) — Kim Clark

“If you’re just competing on price, the next substitute product is going to be taking your customers.” (@00:35:30) — Kim Clark

“Best practice, set your budgets to your lower bound, and then set your goals to your upper bound.” (@00:43:08) — Kim Clark

“I want to help people predict cash. That’s all we want to do is predict cash, and all of the activities we’re doing are giving us insights into why we think we’re going to have that cash position.” (@00:52:17) — Ryan Tansom

About This Episode

Kim Clark is the founder of B2A Marketing and Ryan’s go-to operator on the revenue side of the income statement. Before launching B2A, she ran the sales team at ITR Economics, where forecasting revenue 18 months out wasn’t optional — it was the job. She co-hosts the Growth Playbook podcast with her father, Alan Beaulieu, and brings the rare combination of trained-economist analytical discipline with sales-leader operational experience. This is Part 3 of the Budget Season 2026 series. Part 1 was Ryan and Pat on building the three-statement model. Part 2 was Ryan, Kim, and Alan on rates of change. This episode goes deep on the 12-step revenue forecasting process Kim is documenting from two decades of personal practice.

Resources Mentioned

  • B2A Marketing — Kim’s firm. — b2amarketing.com
  • The Growth Playbook Podcast — Kim and Alan Beaulieu’s podcast on economic forecasting and business growth.
  • ITR Economics — Where Kim ran sales and built the forecasting discipline. — itreconomics.com
  • ITR DataCast Essentials — $80/month tool that runs your data through rates-of-change analysis.
  • ITR Trends Report — Monthly leading-indicator and economic forecast publication.
  • Make Your Move by Brian Beaulieu — Referenced for the framework on how many indicators need to shift before you act.
  • Good to Great by Jim Collins — Referenced for the “bullets before cannonballs” concept.
  • Fathom — AI note-taker now syncing with Asana and project management tools.

Connections

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