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Episode Summary
You’re trying to plan the next five years and the foundation under every number keeps moving. The Fed is getting sued. The 10-year Treasury is twitching. Your CPA can’t tell you what the company is worth, your banker won’t tell you what the cost of capital actually is, and every podcast is selling you a different version of where the economy is headed. I split this one into two parts. First, Kim Clark, her dad Alan Beaulieu, and I got into why political pressure on the Fed isn’t a headline issue, it’s a planning issue. Uncertainty, not recession, is what kills owner decision-making. Then Kyle McCulloch from bizval walked me through their Q1 2026 M&A report: where dry powder is sitting (estimated $2.19–2.5 trillion globally), why bank financing has retreated from the midmarket, how private credit is filling the gap, and why the discounted cash flow is the real anchor under every valuation. The throughline is the part most owners miss. You are a Capital Allocator whether you realize it or not, and reinvesting above your cost of capital is how you outrun debasement.
Top 10 Takeaways
- Political pressure on the Fed replaces methodical policy with two-year election-cycle chaos.
- Uncertainty, not recession, is the real enemy of your planning and your team’s nerve.
- Volatile rates make capital decisions, hires, and acquisitions nearly impossible to time intelligently.
- Agility beats size when conditions shift. Leadership, not headcount, decides who adapts.
- The 10-year Treasury is the foundation under every valuation in your industry. Watch it.
- Multiples start the negotiation. The discounted cash flow tells you what’s actually being bought.
- Cash at closing should equal your DCF, or the seller is still carrying the risk.
- Banks have retreated from midmarket lending. Private credit fills the gap, at a cost.
- Reinvesting above your cost of capital is the only way to outrun debasement.
- You’re a Capital Allocator whether you realize it or not. Act like one or stop being surprised.
Sound Bites
“Uncertainty is the enemy of the economy. And this just introduces another layer of uncertainty.” (@00:18:09) — Alan Beaulieu
“I’m not going to give it a size preference. I’m going to give it a leadership preference.” (@00:31:48) — Alan Beaulieu
“You take five people, they’re all 6’5 and 250 pounds. Some guys are 250 pounds because they eat McDonald’s all day and other guys are 250 pounds because they work out and lift weights all day. We’re not all created equal.” (@00:46:46) — Kyle McCulloch
“You can’t build a house on a soft foundation. The house is the foundation, and when the house starts going, everything else goes with it.” (@01:50:48) — Kyle McCulloch
“The reason I’ve learned all this stuff is so I can forget it all. So I can be very confident about what I can control.” (@01:53:16) — Ryan Tansom
About This Episode
A two-part Q1 2026 update. Part 1 features Alan Beaulieu, president of ITR Economics and longtime Independence by Design collaborator, alongside his daughter Kim Clark, host of The Growth Playbook and one of Ryan’s go-to voices on macro-to-micro translation. Alan and Kim are sounding the alarm on what political control of the Federal Reserve would mean for borrowing, hiring, and planning. Part 2 features Kyle McCulloch from bizval, a global business valuation firm focused on the lower middle market. Kyle’s background sits at the intersection of commodity derivatives trading, geopolitical and cyber risk, and macroeconomic research, and he just released bizval’s Q1 2026 M&A Report. Together the two halves zoom from “what’s happening to the dollar” all the way down to “what does that mean for my next hire and my next valuation.”
Resources Mentioned
- bizval Q1 2026 M&A Report — Kyle’s research on dry powder, deal structures, and valuation trends. — bizval.com
- The Growth Playbook podcast — Kim Clark’s show, co-hosted with Alan Beaulieu.
- ITR Economics — Alan Beaulieu’s economic forecasting firm.
- The One Cent Solution by George Linder — Referenced for an alternative federal budget approach.
- A History of Money and Banking in the United States by Murray Rothbard — Ryan’s favorite money history book covering 450 years of monetary politics.
- The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe — Generational cycles framework.
- Ray Dalio’s frameworks — Referenced for objective thinking on macro cycles and debt.
- Mike Finger — Referenced from prior episode on small-business sale realities.
- OB3 (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) — 100% first-year depreciation for manufacturing facilities, retroactive to January 2025.
- Kim Clark on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/kimberly-clark-79634845
- Alan Beaulieu on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/alan-beaulieu-8343283
- Kyle McCulloch on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/kylemcculloch1
Connections
Phase + Module:
- Module 1 — Ownership Goals — Sell-or-keep is a capital allocator decision, not a tax decision
- Module 4 — Sustainable Financials — The three-statement model under every reinvestment call
Milestones:
- Milestone 4 — Owner’s Value (DCF) — The keep-it lens, where cost of capital and risk meet cash flow
- Milestone 5 — Market Value — The Zillow lens, the multiples comparison
- Milestone 6 — Transaction Value — Cash at closing should equal the DCF, or you’re carrying risk you didn’t price
- Milestone 10 — Three-Statement Model — Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow as one closed loop
- Milestone 12 — Five-Year Forecast — Where macro assumptions and reinvestment math meet
Concepts referenced:
- Three Lenses of Value — Keep-it (DCF), Zillow (multiples), Transaction (cash at closing)
- Capital Allocator — The owner seat Ryan keeps pointing back to
- The Multiple & WACC — Why the multiple is a blunt instrument and WACC is the anchor
- Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) — The hurdle rate every reinvestment must clear
- Free Cash Flow — What the DCF actually discounts
- Three-Statement Model — The closed loop behind every hire, every CapEx, every distribution
- Normalized EBITDA — The income statement proxy that feeds the multiple