Ep. 410 — ITR, ButcherJoseph & Walker Insights: The Q3 Briefing Your CPA Isn't Giving You

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Episode Summary

Your gross profit is up, your margins are tight, and you can’t tell if the softness is you or the cycle. Your CPA does taxes. Your banker manages the line. Your buyer (if one ever calls) is going to lowball you because you don’t have a number to push back with. So I sat down with three of the people I trust most for the Q3 2024 update: Brian Beaulieu from ITR Economics on the macro, Jeff Buettner from ButcherJoseph on M&A and valuation, and Tom Walker from Walker Insights on the operating and balance-sheet side. We got into why rate cuts are not the cure most owners are hoping for, why the next 18 months are the groundwork for who wins in 2028 and 2029, why smaller companies pay higher rates than bigger ones for the same risk, what a status quo valuation actually means versus a strategic valuation, and why a 100% seller note isn’t liquidity (it’s just moving up the balance sheet). The throughline is the same one I keep coming back to with my clients: stop running this as an operator and start running it as the Capital Allocator you already are.

Top 10 Takeaways

  1. Rate cuts aren’t a cure. Fed moves take quarters to land in your P&L, not weeks.
  2. Lead with optimism, but name the squishy parts. Pretending soft spots don’t exist costs you the plan.
  3. Use the next 18 months to lay groundwork. Inflation returns 2026-2028, and the winners get set now.
  4. Tight labor stays tight regardless of cycle. Demographics aren’t reversing, so plan the wage line for it.
  5. Watch return on equity, not just your income statement. Equity earning less than it could elsewhere is a decision to make.
  6. Smaller companies pay higher rates than bigger ones for the same risk. Size is its own discount.
  7. Status quo valuation is your cash flows without synergies. Strategic valuation is what only a competitor can pay.
  8. Optionality is the game. The owner with one liquidity route is the owner who gets squeezed.
  9. Get an ongoing Milestone 4 — Owner’s Value (DCF) even if you’re not selling. You can’t negotiate an out-of-the-blue offer without a baseline.
  10. Things are fine until they’re not. Prepay positions and seller notes are unsecured creditor exposure dressed up as something else.

Sound Bites

“I don’t want people to think that the rate cuts is some sort of immediate cure for the sluggishness in the economy. It doesn’t work that way.” (@TBD) — Brian Beaulieu

“Continue to lead with optimism, not about to go into a recession, but acknowledge that there are some squishy parts out there. There’s no sense denying that.” (@TBD) — Brian Beaulieu

“Most people say I’ll never know what my company’s worth until someone decides to write me a check. Well, BS.” (@TBD) — Ryan Tansom

“You want optionality. As a founder owner, you don’t want to be forced to make a decision. You want to be proactive in determining what makes the best sense for the business.” (@TBD) — Jeff Buettner

“I’m not fun at parties because I’m always interested in the downside.” (@TBD) — Tom Walker

“The sooner they come to terms and make an exit, the sooner you stop with your personal capital strip mine and the more you have left over to move on to the next thing.” (@TBD) — Tom Walker

About This Episode

Episode 410 is the Q3 2024 economic and M&A update, Ryan’s quarterly conversation with three trusted voices in the iBD network. Brian Beaulieu is the CEO of ITR Economics and co-author of Prosperity in the Age of Decline; he covers the macro outlook, the Fed, demographics, and the 2026-2028 inflation cycle. Jeff Buettner is a Managing Director at ButcherJoseph & Co., where he advises owners on M&A, ESOPs, management buyouts, and capital structure. Tom Walker is the founder of Walker Insights, a fractional CFO and economist who works primarily with crop farms and manufacturers on cash flow, working capital, and downside exposure. Together they map Q3 from three angles the owner-operator needs but rarely gets in one place.

Resources Mentioned

  • ITR Economics — Brian and the team’s economic forecasting firm. — itreconomics.com
  • Prosperity in the Age of Decline by Brian and Alan Beaulieu — The big-picture book Ryan references constantly.
  • Make Your Move by Alan Beaulieu — The companion book on tactical moves through the cycle.
  • ITR Financial Resiliency Analysis — 10 and 15-year forecasts for private companies.
  • ButcherJoseph & Co. — Jeff’s firm. M&A, ESOP, and capital advisory. — butcherjoseph.com
  • Walker Insights — Tom’s fractional CFO and economics practice. — walkerinsight.com
  • 60 Minute CFO (Tracy Beck) — Three-statement model template referenced for return-on-equity discipline.
  • GF Data — Referenced briefly for private M&A deal data.

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